The Wild Card weekend games were just that — wild. Though there was merit to fading the Saints stack based on popularity and projected ownership, seeing them get toppled in OT by a Kirk Cousins-led Vikings team was definitely the upset of the weekend.
Yes, I watched the Patriots lose on Saturday night. No, I was not overly surprised by it. While I didn’t expect it, it was much less surprising than the Saints leaving skid marks in their sheets.
The biggest whiff of Wild Card weekend was taking a hard stance on Derrick Henry and landing on exactly zero shares. The Michael Thomas fade worked out. The Henry fade? Not so much.
But that’s the way it goes in short-slate GPPs. Be willing to make a definitive stand, stick to it and construct your lineups the way you see fit. Diversifying your player pool so broadly on short slates and trying to cover all your bases is a setup for failue.
Unless you and your wife max enter the contests together. Then, it’s a guaranteed bink.
What Stands Out
Damien Williams, RB, $6,000
Need more be said than it’s a Kansas City running back under Andy Reid? AKA, a historical fountain of fantasy production. Not only is he finally healthy, but he’s virtually the only show in town now. In Weeks 16 and 17, Williams played 53 and 70 percent of the snaps, respectively, while LeSean McCoy has seen the field as much as you and I have — zero snaps. Darwin Thompson has been involved sporadically, but the most likely outcome is that Reid is going to lean on the guy he trusts, and that’s Williams. His $6K tag is mouthwatering considering the offense he plays in, the matchup he has and the total Vegas has placed on this game (opened at 49, now at 51). In the final two weeks of the season after returning to full health, Williams touched the ball 35 times, which includes seven receptions on 10 targets. Only the Titans and Colts surrendered more receptions to running backs this season, and with how Reid likes to scheme up getting the ball to his backs — especially with giving him an extra week to prepare because of a bye — this seems like the spot for Williams. He’ll most likely draw quite a bit of ownership, but at the price, he’s worth eating the chalk.
DK Metcalf, WR, $6,800
After absolutely obliterating the Eagles’ secondary in the Wild Card round, Metcalf got a $900 price hike and now finds himself more expensive than teammate Tyler Lockett. Initially, when pricing came out on Monday, the lean was for a hard pass, which seems logical when the secondary option in an offense surpasses the No. 1 guy. But if you peel back the curtain, there’s a bit more to see. Metcalf runs the majority — and almost exclusively — of his routes from the left side of the offense. The Green Bay defense is the type that doesn’t shadow, and generally never travels on defense, which leaves guys playing specific sides of the field. Kevin King is likely the primary corner for the side responsible for covering Metcalf, and carries a 62.5 rating from Pro Football Focus. For those of you unfamiliar with the PFF grading scale …
So, while the matchup was probably a lot of why Metcalf was able to get off against a struggling Eagles secondary, it doesn’t seem as if this weekend’s will be much of a step up in difficulty. Even if the Packers do attempt to throw multiple defenders at him throughout the game, the only secondary defender Green Bay boasts who is taller than 6 feet … is King. It’s a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t spot for the Packers.
A.J. Brown, WR, $6,000
It’s been a hell of a season attempting to predict the usage Brown would get on a week-to-week basis. After all but breaking three of the last four DK slates prior to the playoffs, Brown got Gilmore’d in last weekend’s matchup against New England. Gilmore’d to the effect of ONE target. One. Granted, the game script wasn’t conducive to him needing much more than that with Derrick Henry just bulldozing his way through the Patriots’ defensive front, and the weather being abysmal in Foxborough. This weekend, though, I expect the Titans to surrender more points to an all-time efficient Ravens offense. So, the most likely script sets up nicely for Brown, it’s just a matter of getting #TanneThrill … or #TanneNill. Tennessee is -9.5, which is tied as being the biggest underdog on the slate. If the Titans are trailing, they’re going to need to get the ball into the hands of their best playmakers’ hands, so it would line up for Brown to see a bevy of targets. And it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them get him a few touches on end-arounds or carries of some type … and we’ve seen him make myriad electric plays once he has the ball in his hands. He’s definitely not a cash-game option, but he’s an ideal tournament play.
The Cut 